Late Discovery in Aerospace Is Not Bad Luck — It’s Decision Drift

In complex aerospace programmes, late discovery is often described as bad luck.

It rarely is.

Late discovery occurs when decisions drift, assumptions go unowned, and modelling runs without a clear decision or gate attached.

The consequences are predictable. A 6–12-month delay in early industrial decisions routinely results in tens of millions in rework, supply-chain disruption, and rate-readiness pressure. Once tooling, certification evidence, and contracts are in place, even small changes typically cost 5–10× more.

This is not a modelling failure.

When modelling is decision-focused and linked to clear ownership and review points, uncertainty gets retired early — while options still exist and risk is still affordable.